Nifty 50 Analysis

Nifty analysis as on 30-03-2018 Gopal Vora

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Review of last week: If you have carefully followed my last week analysis, you should have observed some points. You can check snap of last week analysis at the end to this post. I have mentioned to break above 10560 and closed above it to watch out, which was done easily on Monday itself, however Nifty was failed to breach 10625 and it came back by touching it. Consequently bulls lost battle at this resistance level and gave up in next two consecutive sessions. One could have taken decision on Tuesday itself to dump their positions. Nifty closed below its crucial level of 10560, which was clear indication of weakness in market.

Support and Resistance Levels for Next Week:

R5 – 11119 – Highest resistance level long term
R4- 11047 – 4th resistance level long term which we are not going to see any time soon.
R3 – 10780 – This will be a crucial resistance level for March series. This level is mid of last last rally of January.
R2 – 10623 – This will now not be easy to reach and break. However need to sustain above it for considerable of time for positive rallies.
R1 – 10513/10555– This is an intimidate resistance level for next week. Nifty to has immediately reach, break and close above this level. Sustaining below this level will not do any good. Believe me this resistance will be very tough to break and sustain above.
S1 – 10420 – This will an immediate and very strong support level. Nifty above 10410 is very safe unless if Nifty breaks down below this level for considerable amount of time then it will act as strong resistance level. watch out this level with eagle eyes.
S2 – 10280 / 10200 – Well this will as strong support for March series.
S3 – 10098 - Last support. Breaching this and sustaining below this will result in free fall as there is no support we can until far below at 9700. 9700 seems very unlikely as now.
S4 – 9700 – This is unlikely to touch and can see if we are very unlucky

Observation-1: Nifty need to immediately breach 10513 and after need to sustain above R1 10555 on closing basis to continue forward journey. Breaking these resistances would not be easy, however last week it was breached, next task should not be difficult. Be cautious at the same time as last week 2# days proved to be false bull run and bulls lost in last 2# session along with that Nifty closed below 10513 was wrost which clearly shows weakness in market.

Observation-2: Nifty need to sustain above S1 10420 for couple of next sessions to gather strength for upward move, however even though this is strong support if breached and any close below this level will take us journey towards 10280. If market show more weakness and slip up to or below 10280 in next one or two weeks, this will further push correction for this month (March). Believe me last week close below 10460 was not good move and this shows clear indication that next week will be in correction mode or at least in consolidation mode.

Observation-3: Technical Indicators - Indicators were pulled back last week and last to last week and was giving buy signals, are now turning back and indicating weakness in market as well as they are now giving sell signal on daily time frame. Some indicators showing goodness on weekly time frame, however its still shows bearish trend on weekly char and as matter of that fact it shows still continuation of consolidation cant be ruled out as of now. Swing of about 121 point is expected in Nifty volatility at either side from the current level withing single day. Lower time frame indicators are also not showing any good signals for pull back.

Look out: Below are major look out points for next week: